In the one corner: the majority of the world's governments, the world's foremost collaboration of atmospheric scientists, health and humanitarian agencies and environmental advocates. Their clear message is that climate change is irrefutable, already happening and destined to irreversibly change the world as we know it -- unless we slam the brakes on greenhouse pollution now. In the other corner, the Australian and US governments -- the world's worst greenhouse polluters and the least willing to do anything about climate change.This is what played out at the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD), held in Johannesburg, South Africa in September 2002.
Renewable energy turned out to be one of the WSSD's most contentious topics. The European Union (EU) proposal for a target of 15 per cent renewable energy by 2010 was nobbled by the US and oil-producing nations, notably Saudi Arabia. The final outcome was a statement that contained no targets or implementation timetables, and was worded so vaguely as to leave the door wide open for nuclear energy, fossil fuels and large dams to be lumped together as 'renewable energy'. This is what the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu (only two to three metres above sea level) has to say about Kyoto and climate change at WSSD:
We want the islands of Tuvalu, our nation, to exist permanently forever and not to be submerged under water merely due to the selfishness and greed of the industrialised world. This is why we had proposed right from the outset, for the establishment of a legally binding framework to set targets and time frames for renewable energy given the direct link between energy and climate change. Unfortunately our proposal never saw the light of the day, due mainly to the actions of countries that refused to ratify the Kyoto protocol ... we told the world during the 1990 Second World Climate Change Conference held in Geneva of the adverse impacts we were already experiencing in Tuvalu ... just a few weeks ago, a period when the weather was normally calm in Tuvalu, unusual waves flooded the capital island of Funafuti. A number of households were evacuated ... it was at low tide with no strong winds when ten metre waves washed right across the land and straight to the lagoon side. It was a very scary experience.
Tuvalu would hardly have been comforted by the Australian government's rescue package, announced in February 2002 as part of the US-Australia Climate Action Partnership (CAP). CAP contains no commitment by either government to binding targets to reduce greenhouse pollution. Instead, the Australian and US governments will assist Pacific nations with 'climate monitoring and data management systems'. The Australian government doesn't deny that the Pacific region is extremely vulnerable to natural disasters; in fact, it is focusing its climate policy efforts in the region on helping 'Pacific Island countries to adapt to the future impact of extreme weather and other events'.
Climate change is increasingly an issue on the radar screen of the financial and insurance sectors. Extreme weather events -- predicted to be more frequent under climate change projections -- will be a costly business. The damage bill from Germany's recent flooding is estimated to cost over A$25 billion following Europe's worst floods in over a century. One of Germany's largest insurance companies, Munich Re, estimates that global warming could cost $300 billion annually by 2050 in weather damage, pollution and industrial and agricultural losses. Higher insurance premiums -- uninsurable households in high weather risk areas -- are a certainty under projections of extreme weather events induced by global warming.
Insurance giant Swiss Re is now reviewing the companies it insures to determine what they are doing to manage climate change risk. The issue of whether companies are fully reporting their environmental liabilities -- such as shareholder losses from penalities due to violating environmental laws, or understating liabilities from climate change -- could be the next big corporate accounting scandal. A landmark legal case was recently launched in the US by a local municipality against US government finance agencies that have provided billions of dollars worth of funding for projects that contribute to global warming. During the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) held in Brisbane earlier this year, Tuvalu's Prime Minister announced that his country is considering taking legal action against Australia -- the highest per head greenhouse polluter in the world -- because of its role in global climate change.
In Australia, CSIRO scientists recently released a report modelling the impacts of climate change on Vicoria. The forecast is more extremely warm days (raising the risk of bushfire), more severe flooding (even in areas where rainfall is likely to be reduced in coming years), and more frequent and intense storms. For grape growing regions in Sunraysia and apple and pear growers around Shepparton, this is a dire prediction. These weather forecasts are supported by solid international evidence. The intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a collaborative process involving over 1500 of the world's foremost climatological, meteorological and atmospheric scientists, concluded that the 1990s were the warmest decade -- and that 1998 was the warmest year -- since records began 150 years earlier. This year looks set to top this, with weather records so far showing it as the hottest year on record globally. Average global temperatures have jumped by 0.5°C in the last twenty-five years. While this may not seem much, it's worth remembering that a fall of just 3°C heralded the last ice age. Today's carbon dioxide levels are 30 per cent above pre-industrial levels, and if energy demand continues to soar at current rates, carbon dioxide levels could double by the end of this century.
Another area in which climate change is likely to cost us dearly is our health. The links between greenhouse gases, climate change, pollution and our ill health are now well established. Photochemical smog, dust and other particulate pollution, including woodsmoke, remain a public health concern in Australia, exacerbating respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses such as bronchitis, pneumonia and asthma. According to the Federal Government's own estimates, up to 2400 deaths a year in Australia are estimated to be linked to air pollution, with an associated health cost of $17.2 billion. Following the 'Asian Brown Cloud' incident -- a pollution cocktail three kilometres thick and stretching from Afghanistan to Sri Lanka -- scientists and public advocacy bodies have raised questions as to whether such an event could occur here in Australia. The cloud was responsible for changing weather patterns (including extreme droughts and floods), affecting agricultural production and widespread death and disease. The pollutants in the Asian Brown Cloud kill over a million people a year through repiratory diseases alone.
The Australian Government has used the cloud incident to point the finger at developing nations' 'dirty' cooking fuels. But evidence strongly suggests a two-way relationship between air pollution and climate change, where climate change increases air pollution levels. This is because as the earth's atmosphere warms, photochemical reactions produce pollutants, such as ozone -- a process that speeds up as temperatures and ultraviolet radiation (sunlight) increase. Prolonged heat conditions can lead to more frequent and severe smog episodes, and the dispersal of allergens -- both of which have been linked to respiratory disease. So reducing greenhouse pollution has demonstrated benefits for minimising both climate change and air pollution -- and we can't neatly blame developing nations for 'their' pollution problems.
There's no substitute for real action. Cutting Australia's greenhouse pollution requires ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, an end to propping up dirty industries, and cutting our ballooning energy usage. To do otherwise will simply be courting disaster -- of the worst and most unnatural kind.
Sarojini Krishnapillai is ACF's Sustainable Cities and Industries Campaigner.
